"Interestingly the lower the age, the higher the VE - so the especially vulnerable, e.g. 80+, were never protected by the vaccine in the first place!"
I think that the myth that the jabs protected the elderly has been one of the biggest of falsehoods in the last few years. The Norwegians noted the high number of elderly who were dying in the first days/week of receiving the jab, and then advised that anyone over 80, or infirm should not get it. This was in January 2021. All other governments ignored this data and advice.
Reading the early reports from Norway is what alerted my wife and I to the risks of these products. We decided to wait and see what transpired. I'm glad we did now!
"I think that the myth that the jabs protected the elderly has been one of the biggest of falsehoods in the last few years." Given the number of bold-faced lies uttered over the last few years, that's a high bar. And yet, I agree with you!
Very good, Ben. Did you use vax rate at end of month though? Deaths data is cumulative to end of month but people die during the month. In early 2021, the vax rate rose significantly. If you use average rate for the month, how does this change things?
Can you put your months on too? I presume you started in April 2021 which is when the latest dataset starts? And if you're demonstrating purported efficacy, you should at least use dose 2, not dose 1? Just to show how it looks using "their method", as spurious as that might be. And then, I guess you can use end of month vax rate to account for that extra 2 weeks needed for it to "work"?!
Hi Joel, this is a clever presentation of the data by Ben, and could help elucidate the matter greatly. Would you consider independently reproducing it to lend it further credibility?
An ACM comparison for unvaxxed vs 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 injections by age group if it's not to much to ask (I know it is). Any time you have a spare month LOL.
ACM & Fertility are the two numbers to watch. I love to track the ACM developments as it is getting visible. Are we in the final stretch or does this 10% "slow burn" last? We'll see shortly because the last 2 years the wave ended at the end of February.
Six months later on 4Oct2020, world-class physicians and researchers made the same recommendation in their Great Barrington Declaration.
On 8Jan2021 I wrote to every Alberta MLA and many federal and civic politicians the following strong recommendation, which has proved entirely correct – NO Covid-19 VACCINES!:
“The Covid-19 vaccine developments were rushed and are not proven safe or effective and should NOT be taken, especially by the low-risk population – those under-65 or recovered from Covid-19. The two experimental Covid-19 vaccines that contain mRNA (Pfizer and Moderna) are especially risky – due to unknown future side-effects, the risk-to-reward is far too high for the low-risk group.”
There was a large increase in total deaths for all ages after the toxic Covid-19 injections were deployed in early 2021 – deaths primarily caused by the “vaccines”.
There never was a real Covid-19 pandemic, just an over-hyped winter flu, in terms of mortality. The costly lockdowns and toxic “vaccines” were never justified.
The Covid-19 virus phony “pandemic” was never a major threat, but we are now into a new phase of the toxic-Covid-19-killer-vaxx debacle:
Based on Alberta total deaths and the increase post-vaxx, I calculated 12.9 million Covid-19-vaxx-deaths worldwide to end2022, increasing to more than 19 million by end2023.
That death count was just independently verified by Rancourt et al (Feb2023) based on Israeli and Australian total death data, at 13.25 million to 24Jan2023 – the same as my total.
These total global Covid-19-vaxx-caused deaths will increase by at least 1/2 million every month unless we take remedial action.
USA
The toxic Covid-19 “vaccines” have now killed ~650,000 Americans, ~50% more than all the U.S. Armed Forces killed or missing in World War II. If we continue as-is, and do not act to treat the vaxx-injured, total estimated U.S. vaxx-caused deaths will exceed ~1 million by end2023.
CANADA
The toxic Covid-19 “vaccines” have now killed ~98,000 Canadians, more than two times all the Canadian Armed Forces killed in World War II. If we continue as-is, and do not act to treat the vaxx-injured, total estimated Canadian vaxx-caused deaths will exceed ~140,000 by end2023.
I am trying to make inexpensive, voluntary, over-the-counter “Ivermectin plus” (IVM + Nattokinase?) packages widely available for treatment of the Covid illness and the vaxx-injured.
This “Ivermectin plus” treatment will save millions of lives worldwide.
Alberta and Canada had NO significant increase in total deaths to 1Jul2021. That success was because our Canadian physicians performed early treatment of Covid-19 symptoms.
Those USA physicians who performed early treatment, like Dr Zev Zelenko, had similar good results.
The alleged USA deaths attributed to Covid-19 in 2020 were caused by medical incompetence – late treatment, Remdesivir, ventilators, death.
USA Covid stats are corrupted and not credible. So are many Canadian Covid stats.
Thanks Ben. I appreciate all your hard work in preparing these calculations and graphs. The next step in this whole sad saga is to gather the results of autopsies that included tests to show if the jabs caused death. This is the direct proof where only a very few studies have come to light. It is more difficult to prove vaccine as cause of death and many doctors are afraid to spend the time digging into real cause of death and irritate their medical colleges who promote the vax.
OK, I just got off the phone with Clare Craig. The reason is because the ONS is making a bunch of assumptions that are not necessarily correct. Joel’s method is more accurate. Clare is writing this up as a subStack now; wait for it.
Every scientist may be wrong sometimes. That's not anything that's abnormal, questionable or problematic. The bigger thing is, how to learn from mistakes and being open to criticism.
I believe it's better to stick with presenting raw after stratified data where it's available rather than age standardising, which potentially introduces error.
The denominator problem plagues a lot of the analysis. I wonder if there is a way of avoiding it? One way I suppose would be to do a cohort study using individual level data.
THE LEFT’S CLIMATE AND COVID SCAMS HAVE SQUANDERED TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF SCARCE GLOBAL RESOURCES AND WASTED MANY MILLIONS OF LIVES
We correctly called the Climate-and-Green-Energy scam in Jan2002, and I correctly called the Covid Lockdowns-and-“Vaccines” scam on 21Mar2020.
I originally published to save trillions of dollars and millions of lives. Now I publish to provide evidence – for Nuremberg 2.0!
Most of you understand the Covid-19 scam – neither the Lockdowns nor the “Vaccines” were ever justified – the scam was about money and control – destroy the economy, peddle costly, toxic “vaccines” and reduce global population – 13 million deaths to end 2022 increasing to 19 million by end2023.
Read the following to understand the Climate scam. My co-authors and I wrote the following correct observations in 2002
1. “Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”
2. “The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”
– by Sallie Baliunas (Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian), Tim Patterson (Paleoclimatologist, Carleton U), Allan MacRae (Professional Engineer, retired (Queen’s U, U of Alberta)
Humlum and his Norwegian co-authors published the following very important climate paper in the journal Science in Jan2013.
It is a very important paper because it proved that the alleged “fossil-fuel driven Global Warming crisis” was false – this “CAGW crisis” cannot exist!
THE PHASE RELATION BETWEEN ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE AND GLOBAL TEMPERATURE - SCIENCEDIRECT
Ole Humlum a b, Kjell Stordahl c, Jan-Erik Solheim d
Global and Planetary Change, Volume 100, January 2013, Pages 51-69
In fact, strong evidence exists that disproves the IPCC's scientific position. The attached Excel spreadsheet ("CO2 vs T") shows that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration lag (occur after) variations in Earth's Surface Temperature by ~9 months (Figures 2, 3 and 4). The IPCC states that increasing atmospheric CO2 is the primary cause of global warming - in effect, the IPCC states that the future is causing the past. The IPCC's core scientific conclusion is illogical and false.
Look at this stunning correlation from my 2008 paper:
dCO2/dt vs UAH Lower Troposphere Global Atmospheric Temperature Anomaly
The rate of change dCO2/dt changes ~contemporaneously with temperature change, but its integral CO2 changes do NOT lead, they LAG temperature changes in time.
Unknown to me, Kuo et al published similar conclusions in the journal Nature in 1990:
COHERENCE ESTABLISHED BETWEEN ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE AND GLOBAL TEMPERATURE
Cynthia Kuo, Craig Lindberg & David J. Thomson, Nature volume 343, pages709–714 (February 1990)
The hypothesis that the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is related to observable changes in the climate is tested using modern methods of time-series analysis. The results confirm that average global temperature is increasing, and that temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide are significantly correlated over the past thirty years. Changes in carbon dioxide content lag those in temperature by five months.
All three of these very important scientific papers have been deliberately “swept under the rug” by Climate fraudsters to support their Global Warming scam.
It will be interesting if they include causes of deaths. The Ethical Skeptic has looked into the US mortality data and it reveals several diseases (e.g. blood clotting diseases) that are many sigma's higher than normal since the start of the vax campaign. It will be useful to know the vaccinated status of the diseased to determine if the excessive deaths are linked to the vaccines.
"Interestingly the lower the age, the higher the VE - so the especially vulnerable, e.g. 80+, were never protected by the vaccine in the first place!"
I think that the myth that the jabs protected the elderly has been one of the biggest of falsehoods in the last few years. The Norwegians noted the high number of elderly who were dying in the first days/week of receiving the jab, and then advised that anyone over 80, or infirm should not get it. This was in January 2021. All other governments ignored this data and advice.
(edited as had typed January 2020).
I am Norwegian, I am elderly, I refused the jab. Real glad. There you have it! 100%
Reading the early reports from Norway is what alerted my wife and I to the risks of these products. We decided to wait and see what transpired. I'm glad we did now!
"I think that the myth that the jabs protected the elderly has been one of the biggest of falsehoods in the last few years." Given the number of bold-faced lies uttered over the last few years, that's a high bar. And yet, I agree with you!
Very good, Ben. Did you use vax rate at end of month though? Deaths data is cumulative to end of month but people die during the month. In early 2021, the vax rate rose significantly. If you use average rate for the month, how does this change things?
Yes, I used mean for the month. I've updated the article now, to include them as ribbons/CI :) Thx
Can you put your months on too? I presume you started in April 2021 which is when the latest dataset starts? And if you're demonstrating purported efficacy, you should at least use dose 2, not dose 1? Just to show how it looks using "their method", as spurious as that might be. And then, I guess you can use end of month vax rate to account for that extra 2 weeks needed for it to "work"?!
Added months now.
And yes, I used dose1 only.... will leave this for now, but might post another post tomorrow by differnt vaxx doses ;)
Thanks
I'm looking forward to this!
Hi Joel, this is a clever presentation of the data by Ben, and could help elucidate the matter greatly. Would you consider independently reproducing it to lend it further credibility?
I agree, you should definitely see what the numbers look like doing it their way.
An ACM comparison for unvaxxed vs 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 injections by age group if it's not to much to ask (I know it is). Any time you have a spare month LOL.
ACM & Fertility are the two numbers to watch. I love to track the ACM developments as it is getting visible. Are we in the final stretch or does this 10% "slow burn" last? We'll see shortly because the last 2 years the wave ended at the end of February.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Thanks for the effort to produce these.
My head is spinning. Any chance of a summary of the key facts for those of us who struggle with the analysis.
I identified the Covid scam in Feb 2020 and published on 21Mar2020. See CorrectPredictions.ca
I analysed the Covid-19 data in Feb2020 and on 21Mar2020 I published the following correct analysis – NO GENERAL LOCKDOWNS!:
“LET’S CONSIDER AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH:
Isolate people over sixty-five and those with poor immune systems and return to business-as-usual for people under sixty-five.
This will allow “herd immunity” to develop much sooner and older people will thus be more protected AND THE ECONOMY WON’T CRASH.”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/21/to-save-our-economy-roll-out-antibody-testing-alongside-the-active-virus-testing/#comment-2943724
Six months later on 4Oct2020, world-class physicians and researchers made the same recommendation in their Great Barrington Declaration.
On 8Jan2021 I wrote to every Alberta MLA and many federal and civic politicians the following strong recommendation, which has proved entirely correct – NO Covid-19 VACCINES!:
“The Covid-19 vaccine developments were rushed and are not proven safe or effective and should NOT be taken, especially by the low-risk population – those under-65 or recovered from Covid-19. The two experimental Covid-19 vaccines that contain mRNA (Pfizer and Moderna) are especially risky – due to unknown future side-effects, the risk-to-reward is far too high for the low-risk group.”
There was a large increase in total deaths for all ages after the toxic Covid-19 injections were deployed in early 2021 – deaths primarily caused by the “vaccines”.
There never was a real Covid-19 pandemic, just an over-hyped winter flu, in terms of mortality. The costly lockdowns and toxic “vaccines” were never justified.
The Covid-19 virus phony “pandemic” was never a major threat, but we are now into a new phase of the toxic-Covid-19-killer-vaxx debacle:
Based on Alberta total deaths and the increase post-vaxx, I calculated 12.9 million Covid-19-vaxx-deaths worldwide to end2022, increasing to more than 19 million by end2023.
That death count was just independently verified by Rancourt et al (Feb2023) based on Israeli and Australian total death data, at 13.25 million to 24Jan2023 – the same as my total.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368389701_Age-stratified_COVID-19_vaccine-dose_fatality_rate_for_Israel_and_Australia
These total global Covid-19-vaxx-caused deaths will increase by at least 1/2 million every month unless we take remedial action.
USA
The toxic Covid-19 “vaccines” have now killed ~650,000 Americans, ~50% more than all the U.S. Armed Forces killed or missing in World War II. If we continue as-is, and do not act to treat the vaxx-injured, total estimated U.S. vaxx-caused deaths will exceed ~1 million by end2023.
CANADA
The toxic Covid-19 “vaccines” have now killed ~98,000 Canadians, more than two times all the Canadian Armed Forces killed in World War II. If we continue as-is, and do not act to treat the vaxx-injured, total estimated Canadian vaxx-caused deaths will exceed ~140,000 by end2023.
I am trying to make inexpensive, voluntary, over-the-counter “Ivermectin plus” (IVM + Nattokinase?) packages widely available for treatment of the Covid illness and the vaxx-injured.
This “Ivermectin plus” treatment will save millions of lives worldwide.
Regards, Allan MacRae, Calgary
Alberta and Canada had NO significant increase in total deaths to 1Jul2021. That success was because our Canadian physicians performed early treatment of Covid-19 symptoms.
Those USA physicians who performed early treatment, like Dr Zev Zelenko, had similar good results.
The alleged USA deaths attributed to Covid-19 in 2020 were caused by medical incompetence – late treatment, Remdesivir, ventilators, death.
USA Covid stats are corrupted and not credible. So are many Canadian Covid stats.
Here is a better link for Rancourt et al Feb2023:
https://denisrancourt.ca/entries.php?id=126&name=2023_02_09_age_stratified_covid_19_vaccine_dose_fatality_rate_for_israel_and_australia
Thanks Ben. I appreciate all your hard work in preparing these calculations and graphs. The next step in this whole sad saga is to gather the results of autopsies that included tests to show if the jabs caused death. This is the direct proof where only a very few studies have come to light. It is more difficult to prove vaccine as cause of death and many doctors are afraid to spend the time digging into real cause of death and irritate their medical colleges who promote the vax.
What population data was used to find the denominator for the unvaccinated cohort? How reliable was it? Great work thank you.
From here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/download
I've added link in the article as well.
Calculations here: https://github.com/USMortality/charts/blob/uk/covid19/gbr/ve.r#L8
Igor did a a piece on this yesterday. https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/ons-data-25-excess-mortality-among?publication_id=441185
Prof Norman Fenton and others have taken this up with the ONS if you weren't aware. See https://osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/correspondence/norman-fenton-martin-neil-clare-craig-and-scott-mclachlan-to-ed-humpherson-the-ons-data-on-vaccine-mortality-is-not-fit-for-purpose/
A base rate fallacy and a Simpsons paradox in one article. Hilarious.
Simpsons paradox, where?
Please explain, this is very important.
Sorry if I've missed something but in the derivation of vaccine effectiveness is the leading '1-' missing in the last line?
Excellent analysis of the situation BTW. Are error bars possible so we could see significance?
Good catch! That is correct, I am using the correct formula, and have already informed the authors a while back....
This is the data by an ONS head of mortality analysis. Why the difference?
https://twitter.com/SarahCaul_ONS/status/1627966418065956864
ttps://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween1april2021and31december2022
OK, I just got off the phone with Clare Craig. The reason is because the ONS is making a bunch of assumptions that are not necessarily correct. Joel’s method is more accurate. Clare is writing this up as a subStack now; wait for it.
Clare Craig is well known for her own egregious misinterpretations Steve, as well you know. For the benefit of others:
Sarah Caul in the twitter thread above clearly establishes the caveats.
Here are some Clare Craig specials
https://counterdisinformationproject.substack.com/p/hartleaks-reveals-gb-news-and-talkradios.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1627359376074842112.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1601947560834375680.html
Every scientist may be wrong sometimes. That's not anything that's abnormal, questionable or problematic. The bigger thing is, how to learn from mistakes and being open to criticism.
That's generous of you and kind. Clare is a well known misinformation agent associated with HART and PANDATA. Clare does neither I'm afraid.
Do you think accusing people of misinformation is helpful?
If you have specific counterarguments, please bring them forward.
Yes, because then ppl can research the counterclaims made against her as detailed by the links I've provided.
Do you think it's helpful to not give both sides of the story?
That post uses ASMR rather than looking at each cohort. But the difference is surprising
I will try to do ASMR as well. But i think the discrepancy might be in the denominator/population data...
I believe it's better to stick with presenting raw after stratified data where it's available rather than age standardising, which potentially introduces error.
The denominator problem plagues a lot of the analysis. I wonder if there is a way of avoiding it? One way I suppose would be to do a cohort study using individual level data.
Have you looked at John Dee's post from today: https://jdee.substack.com/p/ons-vaccination-deaths-analysis
Here is a further analysis https://logiqx.github.io/covid-stats/deaths-by-vax-status/
THE LEFT’S CLIMATE AND COVID SCAMS HAVE SQUANDERED TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF SCARCE GLOBAL RESOURCES AND WASTED MANY MILLIONS OF LIVES
We correctly called the Climate-and-Green-Energy scam in Jan2002, and I correctly called the Covid Lockdowns-and-“Vaccines” scam on 21Mar2020.
I originally published to save trillions of dollars and millions of lives. Now I publish to provide evidence – for Nuremberg 2.0!
Most of you understand the Covid-19 scam – neither the Lockdowns nor the “Vaccines” were ever justified – the scam was about money and control – destroy the economy, peddle costly, toxic “vaccines” and reduce global population – 13 million deaths to end 2022 increasing to 19 million by end2023.
Read the following to understand the Climate scam. My co-authors and I wrote the following correct observations in 2002
1. “Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”
2. “The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”
– by Sallie Baliunas (Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian), Tim Patterson (Paleoclimatologist, Carleton U), Allan MacRae (Professional Engineer, retired (Queen’s U, U of Alberta)
http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/KyotoAPEGA2002REV1.pdf
Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng., Calgary
https://energy-experts-international.com/
SCIENTIFIC COMPETENCE – THE ABILITY TO CORRECTLY PREDICT
https://correctpredictions.ca/
PROOF: ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CHANGES DO NOT LEAD, THEY LAG ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN TIME – THE FUTURE CANNOT CAUSE THE PAST.
I received the following email today from my friend Dr Ole Humlum, Norwegian Climate Scientist, in his monthly update:
http://www.climate4you.com/Text/Climate4you_January_2023.pdf See page 46.
Humlum and his Norwegian co-authors published the following very important climate paper in the journal Science in Jan2013.
It is a very important paper because it proved that the alleged “fossil-fuel driven Global Warming crisis” was false – this “CAGW crisis” cannot exist!
THE PHASE RELATION BETWEEN ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE AND GLOBAL TEMPERATURE - SCIENCEDIRECT
Ole Humlum a b, Kjell Stordahl c, Jan-Erik Solheim d
Global and Planetary Change, Volume 100, January 2013, Pages 51-69
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921818112001658?v=s5
Highlights of this paper:
► Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 11–12 months behind changes in global sea surface temperature.
► Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 9.5–10 months behind changes in global air surface temperature.
► Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging about 9 months behind changes in global lower troposphere temperature.
► Changes in ocean temperatures explain a substantial part of the observed changes in atmospheric CO2 since January 1980.
► Changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emissions.
Unknown to Humlum et al, I published the same conclusions in 2008:
CARBON DIOXIDE IS NOT THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING, THE FUTURE CAN NOT CAUSE THE PAST
By Allan M.R. MacRae, January 2008
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/CO2vsTMacRae.pdf
[excerpt]
In fact, strong evidence exists that disproves the IPCC's scientific position. The attached Excel spreadsheet ("CO2 vs T") shows that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration lag (occur after) variations in Earth's Surface Temperature by ~9 months (Figures 2, 3 and 4). The IPCC states that increasing atmospheric CO2 is the primary cause of global warming - in effect, the IPCC states that the future is causing the past. The IPCC's core scientific conclusion is illogical and false.
Look at this stunning correlation from my 2008 paper:
dCO2/dt vs UAH Lower Troposphere Global Atmospheric Temperature Anomaly
https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:1979/mean:12/derivative/plot/uah6/from:1979/scale:0.18/offset:0.17
The rate of change dCO2/dt changes ~contemporaneously with temperature change, but its integral CO2 changes do NOT lead, they LAG temperature changes in time.
Unknown to me, Kuo et al published similar conclusions in the journal Nature in 1990:
COHERENCE ESTABLISHED BETWEEN ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE AND GLOBAL TEMPERATURE
Cynthia Kuo, Craig Lindberg & David J. Thomson, Nature volume 343, pages709–714 (February 1990)
https://www.nature.com/articles/343709a0
Abstract
The hypothesis that the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is related to observable changes in the climate is tested using modern methods of time-series analysis. The results confirm that average global temperature is increasing, and that temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide are significantly correlated over the past thirty years. Changes in carbon dioxide content lag those in temperature by five months.
All three of these very important scientific papers have been deliberately “swept under the rug” by Climate fraudsters to support their Global Warming scam.
_______________________
Thank you for posting.
Check it out -
UK released All-Cause Mortality Data by Vaccination Status. Lets compare those to Canadian data.
https://opencanada.substack.com/p/uk-released-all-cause-mortality-data
Somebody tell Vinay Prasad the jabs don’t work, even for the elderly.
I don’t think he got the memo.
It will be interesting if they include causes of deaths. The Ethical Skeptic has looked into the US mortality data and it reveals several diseases (e.g. blood clotting diseases) that are many sigma's higher than normal since the start of the vax campaign. It will be useful to know the vaccinated status of the diseased to determine if the excessive deaths are linked to the vaccines.