If Sweden has no excess mortality, then I conclude that the mRNA shots are not the reason for excess mortality in other countries, and hence are not as dangerous as typically portrayed!
Somewhat so... however here you used rather large tolerances and all age ranges binned together. Even though only a fraction of the population was endangered by Covid in 2020, the lin. regr. excess mortality for all age groups combined is at the 5% tolerance limit for the 2019-20 season. Further, the excess mortality that the Spike shots are blamed for are batch dependent (Sweden may have been lucky) and is expected to be most notable in the young (especially as many frail elderly died in 2020), which is again obscured by binning with the other age ranges. And there's more, already said by others.
Jane Ruby interviewed a Jewish counter-bioterrorism expert called Tau Braun who said that the COVID vaccines were designed by the Fourth Reich to kill off non-Aryan people, so Aryans are not harmed by to the vaccines, where by Aryans he meant people of Viking or Germanic heritage. So maybe that's why the Swedes escaped unscathed. Tau Braun also said that the COVID jabs are programmed to grow venom ducts inside the human body which release snake venom, and he said that if there's a snake which eats rodents then the snake only produces venom which kills rodents but not venom which kills amphibians, and in the same way the venom in the COVID jabs is not effective against Aryans.
Sweden has excess mortality in the datasets, and only one EU country saw negative excess mortality in the 2020-2023 range - Norway, during 2020 when nobody was vaccinated. Every other country has seen excess mortality in every other year.
Other notes:
1) Sweden has the 6th lowest vaccination rate for children and one of the highest Legatum health index ranges.
2) They're not the biggest net vaccinator (that dubious dishonour goes to Portugal)
3) At no point did Sweden have negative excess deaths (proving the shots don't work)
4) Romania was the lowest for excess deaths in 2022 (Sweden came second but still had a whopping 3.88 rate)
5) Sweden was only the lowest for 2021, but that's not saying much given they came ~11th in rankings in 2020
6) Sweden also was the 13th biggest administrator of the shots (by dose ratio v population size), and is beaten out by the following countries:
The idea that Sweden offers any proof that the shots don't cause harms is a fallacy perpetuated by the vaccine industry which relies on heavy omission of crucial context setting data.
According to OWID which uses excess mortality data from the World Mortality Dataset, Denmark also had negative excess mortality in 2020 (at least if you look at the average value of excess CMR for weeks which end in 2020):
You wrote that "only one EU country saw negative excess mortality in the 2020-2023 range - Norway". But Norway is not an EU country.
You wrote that "At no point did Sweden have negative excess deaths". However on Mortality Watch, Sweden has negative monthly excess CMR in Februrary to April 2021, March to April 2022, and February to March 2023. At OWID Sweden also has negative weekly excess CMR on 43 out of 120 weeks since the beginning of 2020.
At OWID Luxembourg also had negative excess mortality in 2021 and 2022, and Luxembourg had lower excess mortality than Sweden in 2021 and lower excess mortality than Romania in 2022.
I don't use "ourworldindata" because they have a history of misleading statistics and statistical fraud (see ONS analysis involving expose on Elizabeth Bik: https://thedailybeagle.substack.com/p/fudgegate-cdc-caught-fudging-vaccine; the expose was so bad Bik set her account to private for a while).
Source for datasets are provided in the article, and include official EU data reporting sources. In this case, it includes the official EuroStat data:
Yearly excess mortality rates were calculated taking the monthly datasets for countries and averaging the figure (all months rates added together and then divided by number of months).
Norway was the only country with negative excess deaths in 2020. Even then, it is by a small margin. It isn't proof lockdowns or masks worked because other countries adopted those policies, and is more likely to do with the Midazolam Murders that were exposed (see: https://thedailybeagle.substack.com/p/the-death-penalty-drugs-used-by-care).
You just wrote that your source was "the datasets" without specifying which datasets you referred to, so I thought you meant that what you wrote would be true across multiple sources of data.
Apart from Iceland, Greece, and Cyprus, all other countries in the Eurostat dataset had negative excess mortality during the first two months of 2020. So maybe looking at yearly excess mortality in 2020 isn't a great way to estimate excess mortality during the first year of COVID, like what USMortality likes to do. For example the excess mortality in Latvia was about -10% for the first three months of 2021, about 2% for the next 8 months, and about 30% in December 2020, so the first three months end up offsetting the 30% excess mortality in December 2020, which USMortality would probably use as evidence that Latvia didn't have any excess deaths caused by COVID, and therefore he would conclude that there was no pandemic.
Your Substack post said: "Norway demonstrates it is possible to achieve negative excess death outcomes without the use of shots, something no country has managed to achieve with the shots." However at OWID the number of COVID deaths for Norway is listed as only 436 in 2020, compared to 958 in 2021, 3,442 in 2022, and 805 in 2023. And Norway also had negative excess mortality in the first months of 2021 when the first jab was rolled out. So in 2020 and early 2021 when Norway had low low excess mortality, I think it was caused by a lack of COVID and not a lack of vaccines.
You also wrote that it's "self-evident" that there is a causal connection between a high Legatum health index score and low excess mortality in 2021. However if the deaths were caused by the medical treatment like some people claim, then wouldn't countries where people receive more medical services be expected to have higher excess mortality? Countries with a lower health index also had a lower number of vaccine doses given per capita.
For all countries in the Eurostat dataset except Liechtenstein, the correlation between the Legatum health index score and the number of vaccine doses given in 2021 was about 0.69, the correlation between the number of vaccine doses and excess mortality was about -0.70, and the correlation with the Legatum health index score and excess mortality was about -0.81: https://pastebin.com/raw/Ats0x67e. (For the number of vaccines, I used the average cumulative number of vaccine doses per 100 people reported by OWID throughout 2021, so it's similar to taking a weighted average of total vaccine doses multiplied by the person-years of each dose.)
"You just wrote that your source was "the datasets" without specifying which datasets you referred to"
I linked to the article, which, as said earlier, contains the links to the datasets.
"I thought you meant that what you wrote would be true across multiple sources of data."
Yes, but those would be the data I hold, not all data everywhere. It'd be impossible for someone to know what every dataset holds.
"all other countries in the Eurostat dataset had negative excess mortality during the first two months of 2020"
You mean when the disease wasn't reported to be spreading, and prior to the March-April Midazolam murders? Colour me shocked.
However the data is annualised, so a breakdown by month (with Texan sharpshooter style isolation of datasets) wouldn't be applicable. The only year excluded from analysis is 2023, as given the data only went up to May 2023, it would negatively skewer the averaging of mortality (most mortality is reported closer to end of year as paperwork backlogs get cleared).
"However at OWID"
OWID isn't a reliable source of data, per my earlier remark. It is a third party website that cherry picks data sources with seemingly no rhyme or reason and is not peer-reviewed. I'm aware people find it convenient, but in the credibility fight, third party website versus first hand official European statistics - the first hand European statistics will win every time.
"if the deaths were caused by the medical treatment like some people claim"
That isn't my argument. My argument, on the article, is that mortality is reduced due to early intervention. For example, untreated myocarditis that isn't detected early is fatal. Myocarditis can be survivable - albeit the individuals would be leading a lower quality of life. Then there are the defib machines rolled out preventing otherwise fatal heart attacks. Hence my remark the data ought to include disabilities rates.
"Countries with a lower health index also had a lower number of vaccine doses given per capita."
Vaccine dose did not correlate with Legatum healthcare index and I'm not sure how you arrived at this conclusion. If it did, then it would mean vaccine dose and mortality correlate. Which debunks the 'Sweden is a special case' scenario. In-fact, you contradict this remark with this line:
"[...] the correlation between the Legatum health index score and the number of vaccine doses given in 2021 was about 0.69, the correlation between the number of vaccine doses and excess mortality was about -0.81 [...]"
You can't both have Legatum index positively correlate with both mortality and vaccine dose uptake and also not have vaccine and mortality positively correlate.
"So the absolute correlation with excess mortality was higher for the number of vaccine doses than for the health index score"
Not in the official EuroStat data versus the Europa vaccine doses tracker (factoring in reported European population count). Legatum health index was a better predictor for a reduction in mortality. However we're not talking negative amounts of mortality: there is still abnormal excess deaths in all cases.
So Legatum is simply a variable modifier of pre-existing mortality caused by the doses. Hence why Sweden appears to be lower; I guarantee if you included disability rates, you'll find in countries lower mortality and high dosages, that disability rates will be higher. Just because people don't die, does not mean they're not adversely impacted for life.
"if the deaths were caused by the medical treatment like some people claim"
The midazolam murders were caused pre-2021, before the shot rollout, in March-April 2020, and would have no bearing on vaccine mortality rates. The midazolam murder spike did not re-occur at any other point between 2020 to 2022. Ventilator usage was also heavily overused during 2020, and largely diminished in usage by 2021. The antibiotics prescribing drop was mainly confined to 2020, however I will grant 2021 did not see a return to prior levels across 4 different countries (UK, US, Germany, Australia).
You wrote: "You can't both have Legatum index positively correlate with both mortality and vaccine dose uptake and also not have vaccine and mortality positively correlate." But I said that the Legatum health index had negative and not positive correlation with excess mortality.
You wrote: "Vaccine dose did not correlate with Legatum healthcare index and I'm not sure how you arrived at this conclusion." However I linked to my R code at Pastebin: https://pastebin.com/raw/Ats0x67e. You can run the code by pasting it to the R Console application after you install R: https://cran.r-project.org. Eastern European countries had a lower number of vaccines and a lower health index score than Western European countries: https://i.ibb.co/4fnSZXg/legatum-health-index-score-vs-vaccines-per-hundred-in-2021.png. Bulgaria and Romania were the two countries with the lowest health index score, but they were also the two countries with the lowest average cumulative number of vaccines per capita in 2021.
You wrote that when you used data from the COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker of the European CDC, your correlation with excess mortality was weaker for the number of vaccines than for the Legatum health index score, which was the opposite of my results. However I now edited my previous comment because I noticed that I accidentally listed the correlation values in the wrong order, and my correlation in 2021 with excess mortality was also slightly weaker for the number of vaccines (about -0.70) than for the Legatum health index score (about -0.81).
You could've at least explained that the reason why Sweden had low excess mortality in the flu season 2019-2020 is because Sweden had negative excess mortality before COVID (including both January and February 2020 and late 2019): https://www.mortality.watch/explorer/?c=SWE&t=asmr_excess&ct=monthly&df=2018+Jan&p=1&v=2. The subhead of this article says that "No statistical significant excess mortality detected by any method." But you could've explained that there is still statistically significant excess mortality on a monthly or quarterly scale, and even on a yearly scale if you look at 2020 instead of the flu season of 2019-2020.
The spikes in excess deaths in Sweden coincide with spikes in COVID deaths, PCR positivity rate, number of patients hospitalized for COVID, and amount of SARS-CoV-2 detected in wastewater: https://i.ibb.co/1f8JZ8X/sweden-wastewater.png.
Thank you!
Careful with government population estimates, especially these days. They're horrible.
How do you perform the age standardization?
Methodology described here: https://www.health.ny.gov/diseases/chronic/ageadj.htm
Code here: https://github.com/USMortality/charts/blob/master/lib/asmr.r#L32
Nice.
Have you considered my method? https://metatron.substack.com/p/methodology-for-estimating-excess-2de. Want me to run Sweden's numbers through it? Not sure they have single year of age data?
Definitely interesting methodology!
If Sweden has no excess mortality, then I conclude that the mRNA shots are not the reason for excess mortality in other countries, and hence are not as dangerous as typically portrayed!
Likely, the same would apply to COVID-19 right?
Especially, as we don't see the seemingly protective effect in other countries...
I think it might be a double bluff!
Somewhat so... however here you used rather large tolerances and all age ranges binned together. Even though only a fraction of the population was endangered by Covid in 2020, the lin. regr. excess mortality for all age groups combined is at the 5% tolerance limit for the 2019-20 season. Further, the excess mortality that the Spike shots are blamed for are batch dependent (Sweden may have been lucky) and is expected to be most notable in the young (especially as many frail elderly died in 2020), which is again obscured by binning with the other age ranges. And there's more, already said by others.
I expect it is rather more complicated than that, as some of the further comments point out.
Jane Ruby interviewed a Jewish counter-bioterrorism expert called Tau Braun who said that the COVID vaccines were designed by the Fourth Reich to kill off non-Aryan people, so Aryans are not harmed by to the vaccines, where by Aryans he meant people of Viking or Germanic heritage. So maybe that's why the Swedes escaped unscathed. Tau Braun also said that the COVID jabs are programmed to grow venom ducts inside the human body which release snake venom, and he said that if there's a snake which eats rodents then the snake only produces venom which kills rodents but not venom which kills amphibians, and in the same way the venom in the COVID jabs is not effective against Aryans.
Sweden has excess mortality in the datasets, and only one EU country saw negative excess mortality in the 2020-2023 range - Norway, during 2020 when nobody was vaccinated. Every other country has seen excess mortality in every other year.
Other notes:
1) Sweden has the 6th lowest vaccination rate for children and one of the highest Legatum health index ranges.
2) They're not the biggest net vaccinator (that dubious dishonour goes to Portugal)
3) At no point did Sweden have negative excess deaths (proving the shots don't work)
4) Romania was the lowest for excess deaths in 2022 (Sweden came second but still had a whopping 3.88 rate)
5) Sweden was only the lowest for 2021, but that's not saying much given they came ~11th in rankings in 2020
6) Sweden also was the 13th biggest administrator of the shots (by dose ratio v population size), and is beaten out by the following countries:
Portugal
Italy
Ireland
Denmark
Belgium
Finland
France
Malta
Spain
Iceland
Germany
Austria
Norway
https://thedailybeagle.substack.com/p/solving-the-swedish-mystery
The idea that Sweden offers any proof that the shots don't cause harms is a fallacy perpetuated by the vaccine industry which relies on heavy omission of crucial context setting data.
According to OWID which uses excess mortality data from the World Mortality Dataset, Denmark also had negative excess mortality in 2020 (at least if you look at the average value of excess CMR for weeks which end in 2020):
t=read.csv("https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/owid-covid-data.csv")
t2=t[t$continent=="Europe"&grepl(2020,t$date),]
sort(tapply(t2$excess_mortality,t2$location,mean,na.rm=T))
You wrote that "only one EU country saw negative excess mortality in the 2020-2023 range - Norway". But Norway is not an EU country.
You wrote that "At no point did Sweden have negative excess deaths". However on Mortality Watch, Sweden has negative monthly excess CMR in Februrary to April 2021, March to April 2022, and February to March 2023. At OWID Sweden also has negative weekly excess CMR on 43 out of 120 weeks since the beginning of 2020.
At OWID Luxembourg also had negative excess mortality in 2021 and 2022, and Luxembourg had lower excess mortality than Sweden in 2021 and lower excess mortality than Romania in 2022.
I don't use "ourworldindata" because they have a history of misleading statistics and statistical fraud (see ONS analysis involving expose on Elizabeth Bik: https://thedailybeagle.substack.com/p/fudgegate-cdc-caught-fudging-vaccine; the expose was so bad Bik set her account to private for a while).
Source for datasets are provided in the article, and include official EU data reporting sources. In this case, it includes the official EuroStat data:
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?oldid=509982#Excess_mortality_in_the_EU_between_January_2020_and_May_2023
Yearly excess mortality rates were calculated taking the monthly datasets for countries and averaging the figure (all months rates added together and then divided by number of months).
Norway was the only country with negative excess deaths in 2020. Even then, it is by a small margin. It isn't proof lockdowns or masks worked because other countries adopted those policies, and is more likely to do with the Midazolam Murders that were exposed (see: https://thedailybeagle.substack.com/p/the-death-penalty-drugs-used-by-care).
You just wrote that your source was "the datasets" without specifying which datasets you referred to, so I thought you meant that what you wrote would be true across multiple sources of data.
But anyway, I made a heatmap of the data by Eurostat you used: https://i.ibb.co/89FCnbP/eurostat-monthly-excess-mortality-heatmap.png (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/DEMO_MEXRT__custom_1210067/bookmark/table?lang=en&bookmarkId=fc27a3a9-082b-461d-830b-a4c7b36caf4f).
Apart from Iceland, Greece, and Cyprus, all other countries in the Eurostat dataset had negative excess mortality during the first two months of 2020. So maybe looking at yearly excess mortality in 2020 isn't a great way to estimate excess mortality during the first year of COVID, like what USMortality likes to do. For example the excess mortality in Latvia was about -10% for the first three months of 2021, about 2% for the next 8 months, and about 30% in December 2020, so the first three months end up offsetting the 30% excess mortality in December 2020, which USMortality would probably use as evidence that Latvia didn't have any excess deaths caused by COVID, and therefore he would conclude that there was no pandemic.
Your Substack post said: "Norway demonstrates it is possible to achieve negative excess death outcomes without the use of shots, something no country has managed to achieve with the shots." However at OWID the number of COVID deaths for Norway is listed as only 436 in 2020, compared to 958 in 2021, 3,442 in 2022, and 805 in 2023. And Norway also had negative excess mortality in the first months of 2021 when the first jab was rolled out. So in 2020 and early 2021 when Norway had low low excess mortality, I think it was caused by a lack of COVID and not a lack of vaccines.
You also wrote that it's "self-evident" that there is a causal connection between a high Legatum health index score and low excess mortality in 2021. However if the deaths were caused by the medical treatment like some people claim, then wouldn't countries where people receive more medical services be expected to have higher excess mortality? Countries with a lower health index also had a lower number of vaccine doses given per capita.
For all countries in the Eurostat dataset except Liechtenstein, the correlation between the Legatum health index score and the number of vaccine doses given in 2021 was about 0.69, the correlation between the number of vaccine doses and excess mortality was about -0.70, and the correlation with the Legatum health index score and excess mortality was about -0.81: https://pastebin.com/raw/Ats0x67e. (For the number of vaccines, I used the average cumulative number of vaccine doses per 100 people reported by OWID throughout 2021, so it's similar to taking a weighted average of total vaccine doses multiplied by the person-years of each dose.)
"You just wrote that your source was "the datasets" without specifying which datasets you referred to"
I linked to the article, which, as said earlier, contains the links to the datasets.
"I thought you meant that what you wrote would be true across multiple sources of data."
Yes, but those would be the data I hold, not all data everywhere. It'd be impossible for someone to know what every dataset holds.
"all other countries in the Eurostat dataset had negative excess mortality during the first two months of 2020"
You mean when the disease wasn't reported to be spreading, and prior to the March-April Midazolam murders? Colour me shocked.
However the data is annualised, so a breakdown by month (with Texan sharpshooter style isolation of datasets) wouldn't be applicable. The only year excluded from analysis is 2023, as given the data only went up to May 2023, it would negatively skewer the averaging of mortality (most mortality is reported closer to end of year as paperwork backlogs get cleared).
"However at OWID"
OWID isn't a reliable source of data, per my earlier remark. It is a third party website that cherry picks data sources with seemingly no rhyme or reason and is not peer-reviewed. I'm aware people find it convenient, but in the credibility fight, third party website versus first hand official European statistics - the first hand European statistics will win every time.
"if the deaths were caused by the medical treatment like some people claim"
That isn't my argument. My argument, on the article, is that mortality is reduced due to early intervention. For example, untreated myocarditis that isn't detected early is fatal. Myocarditis can be survivable - albeit the individuals would be leading a lower quality of life. Then there are the defib machines rolled out preventing otherwise fatal heart attacks. Hence my remark the data ought to include disabilities rates.
"Countries with a lower health index also had a lower number of vaccine doses given per capita."
Vaccine dose did not correlate with Legatum healthcare index and I'm not sure how you arrived at this conclusion. If it did, then it would mean vaccine dose and mortality correlate. Which debunks the 'Sweden is a special case' scenario. In-fact, you contradict this remark with this line:
"[...] the correlation between the Legatum health index score and the number of vaccine doses given in 2021 was about 0.69, the correlation between the number of vaccine doses and excess mortality was about -0.81 [...]"
You can't both have Legatum index positively correlate with both mortality and vaccine dose uptake and also not have vaccine and mortality positively correlate.
"So the absolute correlation with excess mortality was higher for the number of vaccine doses than for the health index score"
Not in the official EuroStat data versus the Europa vaccine doses tracker (factoring in reported European population count). Legatum health index was a better predictor for a reduction in mortality. However we're not talking negative amounts of mortality: there is still abnormal excess deaths in all cases.
So Legatum is simply a variable modifier of pre-existing mortality caused by the doses. Hence why Sweden appears to be lower; I guarantee if you included disability rates, you'll find in countries lower mortality and high dosages, that disability rates will be higher. Just because people don't die, does not mean they're not adversely impacted for life.
"if the deaths were caused by the medical treatment like some people claim"
The midazolam murders were caused pre-2021, before the shot rollout, in March-April 2020, and would have no bearing on vaccine mortality rates. The midazolam murder spike did not re-occur at any other point between 2020 to 2022. Ventilator usage was also heavily overused during 2020, and largely diminished in usage by 2021. The antibiotics prescribing drop was mainly confined to 2020, however I will grant 2021 did not see a return to prior levels across 4 different countries (UK, US, Germany, Australia).
You wrote: "You can't both have Legatum index positively correlate with both mortality and vaccine dose uptake and also not have vaccine and mortality positively correlate." But I said that the Legatum health index had negative and not positive correlation with excess mortality.
You wrote: "Vaccine dose did not correlate with Legatum healthcare index and I'm not sure how you arrived at this conclusion." However I linked to my R code at Pastebin: https://pastebin.com/raw/Ats0x67e. You can run the code by pasting it to the R Console application after you install R: https://cran.r-project.org. Eastern European countries had a lower number of vaccines and a lower health index score than Western European countries: https://i.ibb.co/4fnSZXg/legatum-health-index-score-vs-vaccines-per-hundred-in-2021.png. Bulgaria and Romania were the two countries with the lowest health index score, but they were also the two countries with the lowest average cumulative number of vaccines per capita in 2021.
You wrote that when you used data from the COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker of the European CDC, your correlation with excess mortality was weaker for the number of vaccines than for the Legatum health index score, which was the opposite of my results. However I now edited my previous comment because I noticed that I accidentally listed the correlation values in the wrong order, and my correlation in 2021 with excess mortality was also slightly weaker for the number of vaccines (about -0.70) than for the Legatum health index score (about -0.81).
You could've at least explained that the reason why Sweden had low excess mortality in the flu season 2019-2020 is because Sweden had negative excess mortality before COVID (including both January and February 2020 and late 2019): https://www.mortality.watch/explorer/?c=SWE&t=asmr_excess&ct=monthly&df=2018+Jan&p=1&v=2. The subhead of this article says that "No statistical significant excess mortality detected by any method." But you could've explained that there is still statistically significant excess mortality on a monthly or quarterly scale, and even on a yearly scale if you look at 2020 instead of the flu season of 2019-2020.
The spikes in excess deaths in Sweden coincide with spikes in COVID deaths, PCR positivity rate, number of patients hospitalized for COVID, and amount of SARS-CoV-2 detected in wastewater: https://i.ibb.co/1f8JZ8X/sweden-wastewater.png.
Yes, e.g. that's what specifically the Last Value / Mean approach takes into account.
There's always sub year excess, because nothing in nature behaves like a perfect sine wave.