Ever look through the BC Seniors Advocate Monitoring Reports 100+ pages of data tables? It gives a unique data set for 40,000 long term care residents (LTC) and also their view on all-cause mortality for 65+ age group. Summary of normalized LTC data below.
It turns out even seniors were not at risk in 2020, not even frail long term care residents. Proof from the BC government's own Office of BC Senior's Advocate presented below.
Did we only know in hindsight? No.
The BC Seniors Advocate was asked in an interview in the Vancouver Sun on Dec26 2020 if she noticed an increase in the death rate overall in during 2020 in long term care homes. She said no. Well if they were not at any more risk than historical death trends then nobody was.
Here is the data the Senior's Advocate gathered from their own internal sources and Statistics Canada. Below is the the all-cause mortality data for the two most at risk groups:
1) The 1,100,000 seniors 65 and over in BC.
2) The 40,000 residents of long term care in BC
Here is the all cause mortality rate per 10,000 for seniors 65 and over:
2018: 331 per 10,000
2019: 326
2020: 331 (no increase in unvaccinated seniors in the "pandemic")
2021: 340 (increase after first 2-doses)
2022: 343 (increase again after the booster)
Here is the all-cause mortality rate per 10,000 from for the fiscal years ended March 31:
2018/2019: 1,800
2019/2020: : 1,780
2020/2021: 1,750 (pandemic year prior to vaccines)
2021/2022: 1,910 (pandemic, with first two doses of vax)
These results are the opposite of predicted, no increase in all-cause mortality rate before vaccines and and increase rate after vaccines for both cohorts above. This shows there was no reason to give experimental emergency use authorized products to these seniors and if seniors didn't need it nor did working age people or children.
The was reported officially in the BC Seniors Advocate report called:
Monitoring Seniors Services 2023 Report (released March 2024)
Huge correlation in Chile with 4 shot (2nd booster for seniors, but only 4 age group 65-84 and 85+ age groups). The small spike in vaccine dose administration in Feb 2022 period is to this age group and notice the huge bump in excess deaths 3 or 5 sigma event?
Singapore had low excess deaths in the first 8 months of 2021 when people got the primary course doses, then there was a sharp spike in deaths around September 2021 which coincided with the first big wave of COVID deaths, then excess deaths temporarily fell close to zero in January 2022 when booster doses peaked, and then there was a second spike in deaths in March 2022 when there was a second COVID wave but there were no longer that many people getting boosters: x.com/henjin256/status/1832157344999878873.
So the Rancourtian approach of correlating spikes in deaths with spikes in vaccine rollout fails miserably in the case of Singapore.
No, because with a safe and effective vaccine, excess mortality should have been at ~0% year over year. This presents a dilemma: either the vaccine isn’t working, it’s contributing to the excess deaths, or these deaths aren’t related to COVID-19 in the first place.
A vast majority of Covid-19 deaths are fake Covid-19 deaths. In fact, numbers of deaths from chronic conditions and genuine Covid-19 deaths can be easily distinguished by ex-post math analyses. Proven here:
OK, so you are saying the vaccines worked in Jan 2022 and completely failed in March 2022. So are you saying people need to be vaccinated every 3 months?
I thought that Singapore might have had low COVID deaths in January 2022 if it didn't get hit by Omicron until February, but actually most GISAID submissions from January 2022 are Omicron strains: https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/Singapore/AllSamples/from%3D2022-01-01%26to%3D2022-01-31/variants. And an article dated January 8th 2022 also said: "So far, Singapore has seen 2,252 Covid-19 cases caused by Omicron. In the past week, the incidence of Omicron has risen sharply, with the Ministry of Health (MOH) detecting 1,281 cases comprising 1,048 imported cases and 233 local ones, director of medical services Kenneth Mak said at a virtual press conference by the multi-ministry task force tackling Covid-19 on Wednesday (Jan 5). Omicron cases comprise an average of 18 per cent of all Covid-19 cases reported to MOH, and the proportion will rise further, driven by its high transmissibility compared with Delta and other variants." (https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/omicron-versus-delta-what-we-know-so-far)
However actually COVID cases in Singapore already started increasing in early January, but the deaths were lagging behind the cases so there wasn't a clear increase in deaths until the first week of February:
New Zealand also got hit by Omicron relatively late so there wasn't a clear increase in deaths until March 2022. The rollout of the first booster peaked around the same time in January 2022 in both Australia and New Zealand. Australia had a sharp spike in deaths in January 2022 which Rancourt blamed on the vaccines. However in New Zealand the deaths remained flat in January and they only shot up in March 2022: sars2.net/i/moar-nz-vs-australia-third-dose.png. So did New Zealand get a more slow-acting version of the boosters than Australia?
In New Zealand the wastewater prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 remained close to zero until March or late February 2022: sars2.net/i/moar-waste-1.png. From my plot for regional data from Australia, you can see that in Western Australia which didn't have a clear increase in excess deaths in January 2022, the PCR positivity rate also remained close to zero in January 2022, but in the regions of Australia which had a sharp spike in deaths in January 2022, there was also a sharp spike in PCR positivity rate in January 2022: sars2.net/i/nopandemic-australia-smaller.png.
My plot demonstrates how regionally stratified data is a weakness of the Rancourtian approach of correlating spikes in deaths with spikes in new vaccine doses. Another weakness of his approach is age-stratified data, because for example in Czech Republic the rollout of the first booster in December 2021 seems to coincide with a spike in excess deaths if you look at all ages aggregated together, but if you look at age-stratified data, you'll see that deaths peaked about a month after booster doses in ages 80+ but about a month before boosters in ages 40-59: sars2.net/czech.html#Daily_deaths_and_vaccine_doses_by_age_group.
There is still the possibility of delayed death from COVID shots. A common occurrence is that a nation which administers over 40 doses per 100 people in less than 6 months time, goes on to experience an upwelling of excess death.
You are correct that Rancourt's analyses, which emphasize temporal correlations between spikes in mortaity and vaccine administrations, are seriously flawed. The strongest evidence in the all-cause excess mortaity data for net vaccine harm comes from the post-omicron period. Since about March/April 2022, rates of excess morality worldwide are consistently positively correlated with vaccination rates, completely reversing the situation that pertained pre-omicron. How to properly interpret this fact is, however, still not obvious. It is plausible that the vaccines provided a moderate level of protection against Covid, which lasted a few months, but that this is no longer the case and that we are now seeing longer term net harm.
Covid-19 has never been itself a special danger. There are two ways of proving it. The easiest one is: the average number of chronic conditions amongst "official Covid-19 fatal victims" was not visibly increased against the number in the comparative group of alive ones with the same age-structure (like supposed Covid-19 victims), while mortality and a number of conditions must be strongly correlated. The age-adjustment eliminates any meaning of older ones dying more often than younger ones from Covid-19. To understand it, it is enough to read 'Extended Abstract', 'Remarks' and 'Additional Notes'.
The script itself is already very difficult, but not the affair with the number of conditions. ...Why any medical has not been able to do something so simple himself? We assume any medical knows that a number of conditions is strongly correlated with further life expectancy for every specific age. Should not they be ashamed?
So, in 2021 at least, all-cause EM correlates much better with rates of Covid itself than with vaccination rates. EM seems to have taken off when, despite its harsh lockdowns, Covid eventually hit Singapore.
I have extensively criticized analyses of Rancourt et al on similar grounds, for global data. To see clearer evidence of net vaccine harm in just the *all-cause* excess mortality data, you generally need to look beyond the first omicron wave. Of course, the fact that Covid eventually hit places like Singapore anyway despite the mass vaccination does show that the vaccines failed in that respect.
Didn't Singapore have one of the lowest covid case fatality rates? Thought I read that somewhere. This notwithstanding the various cheap tricks used to determine covid infections and deaths where covid was the primary cause. That, in this day and age, we don't even have clarity on or consistency of such things, and we are never getting complete transparency, should ring alarm bells.
Also, weren't far less lethal variants circulating in '23 yet excess mortality is still high? Dropping but still scary.
Nice work. Agrees with our results for Singapore, all-ages.
Ever look through the BC Seniors Advocate Monitoring Reports 100+ pages of data tables? It gives a unique data set for 40,000 long term care residents (LTC) and also their view on all-cause mortality for 65+ age group. Summary of normalized LTC data below.
It turns out even seniors were not at risk in 2020, not even frail long term care residents. Proof from the BC government's own Office of BC Senior's Advocate presented below.
Did we only know in hindsight? No.
The BC Seniors Advocate was asked in an interview in the Vancouver Sun on Dec26 2020 if she noticed an increase in the death rate overall in during 2020 in long term care homes. She said no. Well if they were not at any more risk than historical death trends then nobody was.
Here is the data the Senior's Advocate gathered from their own internal sources and Statistics Canada. Below is the the all-cause mortality data for the two most at risk groups:
1) The 1,100,000 seniors 65 and over in BC.
2) The 40,000 residents of long term care in BC
Here is the all cause mortality rate per 10,000 for seniors 65 and over:
2018: 331 per 10,000
2019: 326
2020: 331 (no increase in unvaccinated seniors in the "pandemic")
2021: 340 (increase after first 2-doses)
2022: 343 (increase again after the booster)
Here is the all-cause mortality rate per 10,000 from for the fiscal years ended March 31:
2018/2019: 1,800
2019/2020: : 1,780
2020/2021: 1,750 (pandemic year prior to vaccines)
2021/2022: 1,910 (pandemic, with first two doses of vax)
These results are the opposite of predicted, no increase in all-cause mortality rate before vaccines and and increase rate after vaccines for both cohorts above. This shows there was no reason to give experimental emergency use authorized products to these seniors and if seniors didn't need it nor did working age people or children.
The was reported officially in the BC Seniors Advocate report called:
Monitoring Seniors Services 2023 Report (released March 2024)
Huge correlation in Chile with 4 shot (2nd booster for seniors, but only 4 age group 65-84 and 85+ age groups). The small spike in vaccine dose administration in Feb 2022 period is to this age group and notice the huge bump in excess deaths 3 or 5 sigma event?
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-average-baseline-by-age?country=~CHL
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-19-vaccination-doses?tab=chart&country=~CHL
Singapore had low excess deaths in the first 8 months of 2021 when people got the primary course doses, then there was a sharp spike in deaths around September 2021 which coincided with the first big wave of COVID deaths, then excess deaths temporarily fell close to zero in January 2022 when booster doses peaked, and then there was a second spike in deaths in March 2022 when there was a second COVID wave but there were no longer that many people getting boosters: x.com/henjin256/status/1832157344999878873.
So the Rancourtian approach of correlating spikes in deaths with spikes in vaccine rollout fails miserably in the case of Singapore.
No, because with a safe and effective vaccine, excess mortality should have been at ~0% year over year. This presents a dilemma: either the vaccine isn’t working, it’s contributing to the excess deaths, or these deaths aren’t related to COVID-19 in the first place.
A vast majority of Covid-19 deaths are fake Covid-19 deaths. In fact, numbers of deaths from chronic conditions and genuine Covid-19 deaths can be easily distinguished by ex-post math analyses. Proven here:
https://zenodo.org/record/8312871
OK, so you are saying the vaccines worked in Jan 2022 and completely failed in March 2022. So are you saying people need to be vaccinated every 3 months?
I thought that Singapore might have had low COVID deaths in January 2022 if it didn't get hit by Omicron until February, but actually most GISAID submissions from January 2022 are Omicron strains: https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/Singapore/AllSamples/from%3D2022-01-01%26to%3D2022-01-31/variants. And an article dated January 8th 2022 also said: "So far, Singapore has seen 2,252 Covid-19 cases caused by Omicron. In the past week, the incidence of Omicron has risen sharply, with the Ministry of Health (MOH) detecting 1,281 cases comprising 1,048 imported cases and 233 local ones, director of medical services Kenneth Mak said at a virtual press conference by the multi-ministry task force tackling Covid-19 on Wednesday (Jan 5). Omicron cases comprise an average of 18 per cent of all Covid-19 cases reported to MOH, and the proportion will rise further, driven by its high transmissibility compared with Delta and other variants." (https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/omicron-versus-delta-what-we-know-so-far)
However actually COVID cases in Singapore already started increasing in early January, but the deaths were lagging behind the cases so there wasn't a clear increase in deaths until the first week of February:
wget covid.ourworldindata.org/data/owid-covid-data.csv
awk 'NR==1||/Singapore/' owid-covid-data.csv|csvtk cut -fdate,excess_mortality,new_cases,new_deaths|awk -F, '$3!=0'|csvtk pretty -s' '
---
New Zealand also got hit by Omicron relatively late so there wasn't a clear increase in deaths until March 2022. The rollout of the first booster peaked around the same time in January 2022 in both Australia and New Zealand. Australia had a sharp spike in deaths in January 2022 which Rancourt blamed on the vaccines. However in New Zealand the deaths remained flat in January and they only shot up in March 2022: sars2.net/i/moar-nz-vs-australia-third-dose.png. So did New Zealand get a more slow-acting version of the boosters than Australia?
In New Zealand the wastewater prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 remained close to zero until March or late February 2022: sars2.net/i/moar-waste-1.png. From my plot for regional data from Australia, you can see that in Western Australia which didn't have a clear increase in excess deaths in January 2022, the PCR positivity rate also remained close to zero in January 2022, but in the regions of Australia which had a sharp spike in deaths in January 2022, there was also a sharp spike in PCR positivity rate in January 2022: sars2.net/i/nopandemic-australia-smaller.png.
My plot demonstrates how regionally stratified data is a weakness of the Rancourtian approach of correlating spikes in deaths with spikes in new vaccine doses. Another weakness of his approach is age-stratified data, because for example in Czech Republic the rollout of the first booster in December 2021 seems to coincide with a spike in excess deaths if you look at all ages aggregated together, but if you look at age-stratified data, you'll see that deaths peaked about a month after booster doses in ages 80+ but about a month before boosters in ages 40-59: sars2.net/czech.html#Daily_deaths_and_vaccine_doses_by_age_group.
Henjin,
There is still the possibility of delayed death from COVID shots. A common occurrence is that a nation which administers over 40 doses per 100 people in less than 6 months time, goes on to experience an upwelling of excess death.
[see this persuasive evidence: https://deepd1ve.substack.com/p/after-initial-mass-dosing-excess ]
You are correct that Rancourt's analyses, which emphasize temporal correlations between spikes in mortaity and vaccine administrations, are seriously flawed. The strongest evidence in the all-cause excess mortaity data for net vaccine harm comes from the post-omicron period. Since about March/April 2022, rates of excess morality worldwide are consistently positively correlated with vaccination rates, completely reversing the situation that pertained pre-omicron. How to properly interpret this fact is, however, still not obvious. It is plausible that the vaccines provided a moderate level of protection against Covid, which lasted a few months, but that this is no longer the case and that we are now seeing longer term net harm.
might ask Bill Gates
Hi
Covid-19 has never been itself a special danger. There are two ways of proving it. The easiest one is: the average number of chronic conditions amongst "official Covid-19 fatal victims" was not visibly increased against the number in the comparative group of alive ones with the same age-structure (like supposed Covid-19 victims), while mortality and a number of conditions must be strongly correlated. The age-adjustment eliminates any meaning of older ones dying more often than younger ones from Covid-19. To understand it, it is enough to read 'Extended Abstract', 'Remarks' and 'Additional Notes'.
https://zenodo.org/record/8312871
The script itself is already very difficult, but not the affair with the number of conditions. ...Why any medical has not been able to do something so simple himself? We assume any medical knows that a number of conditions is strongly correlated with further life expectancy for every specific age. Should not they be ashamed?
Your graph shows EM taking off from about Sep/Oct 2021. That is when Singapore experienced its first real (official) Covid wave:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/singapore/
On the other hand, vaccination already began back in Jan 2021, reached a peak in early July and was at a "local minimum" in Sep/Oct:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/singapore/
So, in 2021 at least, all-cause EM correlates much better with rates of Covid itself than with vaccination rates. EM seems to have taken off when, despite its harsh lockdowns, Covid eventually hit Singapore.
I have extensively criticized analyses of Rancourt et al on similar grounds, for global data. To see clearer evidence of net vaccine harm in just the *all-cause* excess mortality data, you generally need to look beyond the first omicron wave. Of course, the fact that Covid eventually hit places like Singapore anyway despite the mass vaccination does show that the vaccines failed in that respect.
The vaccines could never be very effective, but because Covid-19 itself could have given hardly any excess deaths: https://zenodo.org/record/8312871
Didn't Singapore have one of the lowest covid case fatality rates? Thought I read that somewhere. This notwithstanding the various cheap tricks used to determine covid infections and deaths where covid was the primary cause. That, in this day and age, we don't even have clarity on or consistency of such things, and we are never getting complete transparency, should ring alarm bells.
Also, weren't far less lethal variants circulating in '23 yet excess mortality is still high? Dropping but still scary.
probably some kind of spice they are using