Is Mortality in the US Back to Normal?

An in-depth look at age-stratified mortality for the USA!

CDC's Excess Deaths chart suggests that death levels have returned to baseline, and thus excess deaths have stopped in the US.

However, that’s a bit misleading, not intentional, but we have to look at the individual age groups!

Currently, individual age groups are not supported at Mortality Watch (coming soon!) - but I made some charts to show Q1 2023 and Jan-May 2023:

From here, I would say age groups 0-24, 25-44, 75-84 still look elevated.

And here’s a view with even more age bins:

From here, I would say age groups 10-19, 40-49, look elevated. Note that here I’m using a 10y baseline, which is likely more accurate, than the 5y baseline, which is based on the weekly dataset above.

It becomes even more clear, when we also include the confidence intervals:

Lastly, here are the charts from Mortality Watch, that show monthly deaths:

monthly CMR

monthly ASMR

monthly eASMR

So while we can see that most age groups appear to be back to normal, there are still two age groups which have sign. Excess, and also the excess ASMR chart still shows clearly that there’s some excess mortality going on. Currently, about +5-10%!

Find all charts over at Mortality.Watch!