Great analyses Ben, and thanks especially for the github repo. Wanted to mention a likely *second* Simpsons paradox situation for the "Ever vaccinated" aggregate curve. To see this, take Table 1 and plot the mortality rate curves for each of the vaccinated subgroups. Interestingly, they all quickly shoot well above the unvaccinated curve and remain there. So it appears the valleys of these subgroup curves cancel out peaks when computing the aggregated curve, and we should account for people moving from one vax subgroup to the next. As you have shown, typically in Simpson's paradox cases, it is the subgroup (stratified) curves that tell the real story.
Would speculate that if we do two-way stratification and adjustment on vax subgroup and age, then the results would clearly favor unvaccinated.
I don't know if "vaccine register dataset" is the correct term to refer to the data from the UK Coronavirus Dashboard API. I think "vaccination register" is just a synonym for NIMS. If you google for `site:coronavirus.data.gov.uk "vaccine register"`, the preview text for one of the search results features the text "VaccineRegisterPopulationByVaccinationDate: Vaccination register (NIMS)". However the text seems to have been removed from the current version of the page and I didn't find the text at Google's cache or the Wayback Machine either.
So since there seem to be different versions of the NIMS data, maybe it's not sufficient to say that you're using data from NIMS either but you have to specify which version of the NIMS data you're using.
> There are also claims that the vaccines are effective after the first dose, but only after 14 days have elapsed. In fact, the USA CDC (Center for Disease Control) classifies any case, hospitalization or death occurring during this 14-day period after first dose as 'unvaccinated', despite injection [18]. Evidence from Israel suggests that this definition applies there [23], but in the UK it was never clear that this was the case until the release of documentation suggesting that the vaccinated who die within 14 days of vaccination might be categorized as unvaccinated [17].
> Similarly, if it is possible that someone who dies within 14 days of vaccination (first dose) is miscategorised as unvaccinated then, hypothetically at least, a similar thing could occur post second dose, whereby the people who die within a period of taking the second vaccine are miscategorised as 'single dose vaccinated'. In an FOI request [26] the UKHSA confirmed that, in their vaccine surveillance reports, those who have received 2 doses but less than 14 days before the specimen date of their positive Covid test are included in the received 1 dose greater than 21 days category. Likewise, in [30] the UKHSA combine unvaccinated and 'less than 28 days' since first dose vaccination as being equivalent in their assessment of risk of hospital admission. A fuller investigation of the miscategorisation problem as seen in the Dagan study [23] is expanded in the analysis by Reeder [22] and demonstrates that confounding by miscategorisation can account for most, if not all, of any effectiveness claimed in an observational study.
However we're getting conflicting information from Sarah Caul from the ONS, because she tweeted: "We have always counted someone as vaccinated from the moment they are vaccinated" (https://twitter.com/SarahCaul_ONS/status/1629060213352415234).
But if you simply look at all-cause ASMR by vaccination status, there was a huge spike in all-cause mortality among unvaccinated people around the same time when the first jab was rolled out, among single-jabbed people when the second jab was rolled out, and among double-jabbed people when the third jab was rolled out: https://i.ibb.co/9Vy0bR7/ons-all-cause-asmr-by-vaccination-status.png.
If you look at all-cause ASMR within different age groups, the spikes in mortality came earlier in older age groups which were vaccinated earlier: https://i.ibb.co/rbhK356/agecowwav.jpg. For example in the age group of 80-89, the mortality in unvaccinated people peaked in February 2021, which is the same month when there was the biggest increase in the number of single-jabbed people compared to the previous month. And in the age group of 60-69, the mortality in unvaccinated people peaked in March 2021, which is again the same month when there was the biggest increase in the number of single-jabbed people compared to the previous month. And similarly older age groups received the second jab earlier than younger age groups, but mortality in single-jabbed people peaked in May 2021 in the age groups 90+ and 80-89, in June in the age group 70-79, and in July in the age groups 60-69 and 50-59. (In these plots I calculated the total ASMR within each vaccination group in an incorrect way, because for example I calculated the ASMR of the "First dose (weighted average)" group by taking the weighted average of the ASMR of the groups "First dose, less than 21 days ago" and "First dose, at least 21 days ago", which is not the same as the real ASMR of single-jabbed people, but we cannot calculate the ASMR correctly ourselves because the ONS does not publish data for the 5-year age groups they use to calculate the real ASMR values).
Am I understanding this correctly that the jabs aren't causing excess deaths? What would be the cause of the people dropping dead like the athletes, news casters, etc. Is it due to having a prior covid infection?
Great analyses Ben, and thanks especially for the github repo. Wanted to mention a likely *second* Simpsons paradox situation for the "Ever vaccinated" aggregate curve. To see this, take Table 1 and plot the mortality rate curves for each of the vaccinated subgroups. Interestingly, they all quickly shoot well above the unvaccinated curve and remain there. So it appears the valleys of these subgroup curves cancel out peaks when computing the aggregated curve, and we should account for people moving from one vax subgroup to the next. As you have shown, typically in Simpson's paradox cases, it is the subgroup (stratified) curves that tell the real story.
Would speculate that if we do two-way stratification and adjustment on vax subgroup and age, then the results would clearly favor unvaccinated.
You could try this dataset to see what deaths are missing by age up to July 2022?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/adhocs/15018dailydeathsbydateofoccurrence1june2014to31july2022bysingleyearofageandsexengland
I don't know if "vaccine register dataset" is the correct term to refer to the data from the UK Coronavirus Dashboard API. I think "vaccination register" is just a synonym for NIMS. If you google for `site:coronavirus.data.gov.uk "vaccine register"`, the preview text for one of the search results features the text "VaccineRegisterPopulationByVaccinationDate: Vaccination register (NIMS)". However the text seems to have been removed from the current version of the page and I didn't find the text at Google's cache or the Wayback Machine either.
An article published by Public Health England says: "NHS Digital have led the development of a new national vaccination register and call/recall system for COVID-19 and influenza vaccination – the National Immunisation Management System (NIMS)." (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/974300/COVID-19_vaccine_surveillance_strategy_March21.pdf)
The data in the Excel files on this page is supposed to come from NIMS: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/. In the Excel files, the "Cumulative number of dose 1 vaccinations delivered" is listed as 43,559,688 in England on January 1st 2022. However if you go Coronavirus Dashboard API, you set the area type to "Nation", you set area name to England, you set the metric to "cumPeopleVaccinatedFirstDoseByPublishDate", it shows that the number of vaccinated people on January 1st 2022 was 43,516,101, which is almost the same as in the Excel file but not exactly. (You can also run `curl 'https://api.coronavirus.data.gov.uk/v2/data?areaType=nation&areaCode=E92000001&metric=cumPeopleVaccinatedFirstDoseByPublishDate&format=csv'|grep 2022-01-01`.)
So since there seem to be different versions of the NIMS data, maybe it's not sufficient to say that you're using data from NIMS either but you have to specify which version of the NIMS data you're using.
What's the definition of "unvaccinated?" Does it include the 14 days following the jab? This stupid definition has been the norm.
In the paper by Neil and Fenton et al. from January 2022, they wrote (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357778435):
> There are also claims that the vaccines are effective after the first dose, but only after 14 days have elapsed. In fact, the USA CDC (Center for Disease Control) classifies any case, hospitalization or death occurring during this 14-day period after first dose as 'unvaccinated', despite injection [18]. Evidence from Israel suggests that this definition applies there [23], but in the UK it was never clear that this was the case until the release of documentation suggesting that the vaccinated who die within 14 days of vaccination might be categorized as unvaccinated [17].
> Similarly, if it is possible that someone who dies within 14 days of vaccination (first dose) is miscategorised as unvaccinated then, hypothetically at least, a similar thing could occur post second dose, whereby the people who die within a period of taking the second vaccine are miscategorised as 'single dose vaccinated'. In an FOI request [26] the UKHSA confirmed that, in their vaccine surveillance reports, those who have received 2 doses but less than 14 days before the specimen date of their positive Covid test are included in the received 1 dose greater than 21 days category. Likewise, in [30] the UKHSA combine unvaccinated and 'less than 28 days' since first dose vaccination as being equivalent in their assessment of risk of hospital admission. A fuller investigation of the miscategorisation problem as seen in the Dagan study [23] is expanded in the analysis by Reeder [22] and demonstrates that confounding by miscategorisation can account for most, if not all, of any effectiveness claimed in an observational study.
However we're getting conflicting information from Sarah Caul from the ONS, because she tweeted: "We have always counted someone as vaccinated from the moment they are vaccinated" (https://twitter.com/SarahCaul_ONS/status/1629060213352415234).
But if you simply look at all-cause ASMR by vaccination status, there was a huge spike in all-cause mortality among unvaccinated people around the same time when the first jab was rolled out, among single-jabbed people when the second jab was rolled out, and among double-jabbed people when the third jab was rolled out: https://i.ibb.co/9Vy0bR7/ons-all-cause-asmr-by-vaccination-status.png.
If you look at all-cause ASMR within different age groups, the spikes in mortality came earlier in older age groups which were vaccinated earlier: https://i.ibb.co/rbhK356/agecowwav.jpg. For example in the age group of 80-89, the mortality in unvaccinated people peaked in February 2021, which is the same month when there was the biggest increase in the number of single-jabbed people compared to the previous month. And in the age group of 60-69, the mortality in unvaccinated people peaked in March 2021, which is again the same month when there was the biggest increase in the number of single-jabbed people compared to the previous month. And similarly older age groups received the second jab earlier than younger age groups, but mortality in single-jabbed people peaked in May 2021 in the age groups 90+ and 80-89, in June in the age group 70-79, and in July in the age groups 60-69 and 50-59. (In these plots I calculated the total ASMR within each vaccination group in an incorrect way, because for example I calculated the ASMR of the "First dose (weighted average)" group by taking the weighted average of the ASMR of the groups "First dose, less than 21 days ago" and "First dose, at least 21 days ago", which is not the same as the real ASMR of single-jabbed people, but we cannot calculate the ASMR correctly ourselves because the ONS does not publish data for the 5-year age groups they use to calculate the real ASMR values).
OMG!! Did you hear this.... Smoking Gun! UK Gov Job Posting For The Coming "Largest Mass Vaccination Program" In History
https://rumble.com/v2bsb8e-smoking-gun-uk-gov-job-posting-for-the-coming-largest-mass-vaccination-prog.html?mref=6zof&mc=dgip3&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Libertytalkcanada&ep=2
WHERE’S MY BOOK!!!!!????
The ONS data stinks to high heaven.
We shouldn't be surprised those complicit in killing people, are also prepared to lie about it.
Am I understanding this correctly that the jabs aren't causing excess deaths? What would be the cause of the people dropping dead like the athletes, news casters, etc. Is it due to having a prior covid infection?
The ONS data is corrupted in a manner which, at first glance, shows unvaccinated worse off.
UK mathematician, Norman Fenton, said the ONS halved the proportion of the population listed as unvaccinated, thereby doubling their relative deaths.
This data release was delayed for months, probably to facilitate the manipulation/attempt to cover up vaccine harms.
I thought Justin Hart would report accurately. Lol