Round #2 of ONS All-Cause Mortality Data Analysis

Today, I have analyzed the UK ONS All-Cause Mortality data for England in two additional dimensions. If you haven’t read my first article, please check it out here. First I looked at all-cause mortality by vaccination status & sex, and secondly by age group and vaccination rate, and change by month from 2021 to 2022.

Summary

• By gender and age group, unvaccinated mostly show lower mortality rates than vaccinated. That is, in contrast, to the aggregate rates analyzed earlier, which points towards fundamental issues in the provided ONS dataset.

• Age groups with less vaccination saw a strong decrease in all-cause deaths, while, elderly with high vaccination levels, saw no change or even an increase, which might indicate, that the data is flawed as well, or the vaccine might not be beneficial.

By Sex

Let’s start with a single age group, here I picked 80-89, as it’s one of the most obvious. This chart plots the Age-standardized mortality rate per 100k person years, as provided by Office for National Statistics UK (ONS).

We can see, that the unvaccinated rate appears relatively flat. The rate of the vaccinated starts out lower, then sees a huge jump, until it comes down again, but still remains higher than those of the unvaccinated.

First Dose

Second Dose

Booster

As you can see, most of the dashed lines (unvaccinated) are below the vaccinated, which indicates, that they would have a lower all-cause mortality rate. This is in complete contrast, to the aggregate rates the ONS has provided, and that I have charted in the first article on this topic. This points towards severe data or methodological issues in the provided data.

By Age Group and Vaccination Rate

Secondly, I looked at overall mortality by age group and vaccination rate. The bars, represent all deaths and the red line, the vaccination rate in the specific age group.

By age group, we can see some interesting pattern, namely that deaths decrease in the lower age groups (lower vaccinated), and appear to increase in the upper age groups (higher vaccinated).

Let’s focus on the highest and the lowest age group.

First, vaccination rate in seniors is very high, over 90%. Despite (or because?) the high vaccination rate, deaths kept trending higher during the last two years.

The number of deaths, increased from about 8,000/month, to about 10,000 per month.

In contrast to that, in the 18-39 year olds, vaccination rates started rising later in time, and also peaked at about 70%. The number of deaths, however, has dropped from 800-900/month, to only about 300 per month…

Obviously seasonality plays a big factor, but even comparing the same months of 2021 to 2022 this trend holds true. <60-year-olds saw a massive decline in deaths, while >80 saw an increase in absolute deaths.

Hence, with an extremely high vaccination rate, the elderly saw an increase in deaths, while with a higher share of unvaccinated the younger saw a decrease in deaths.

Since this ONS dataset, appears to be completely flawed, these charts should clearly be taken with a grain of salt.

Here are the actual raw and excess deaths:

Let me know what you think in the comments!

Data & Calculations

Data & Calculations can be found here: https://github.com/USMortality/charts/tree/uk/covid19/gbr